It's a relatively small sample size, since I've only been handicapping UFC cards for just over 6 years, but according to my database over that time, the fighter that announces retirement before a fight loses around 65% of the time. As a gambler that's a strong trend that can't be ignored. It's akin to the trend that around 63% of the time the younger fighter wins in UFC fights, which is also a trend that can'tbeignored. Also, when a fighter wins their pre-announced retirement fight, by my records that fighter goes on to fight again after that around 79% of the time. And then they tend to lose that next fight around 86% of the time, but by my notes they usually don't announce retirement before that 2nd fight, so it doesn't count toward the percentage of fighters that lose their "retirement" fight because my calculations require the retirement announcement before the fight to be included. So there's that caveat. If we're just talking the percentage of fighters that lose their last fight in the UFC, regardless of pre-fight retirement announcement, by my sample fighters lose their last UFC fight around 73% of the time.
Also, going on Conner's point, I can find no examples in my database over the past 6 years of UFC fights where a fighter has won the first 2 fights in a trilogy and lost the 3rd fight. But the only fight I have record of during that time span is the Volkanovski trilogy with Holloway. Holloway is the only loser I can find in that situation over the past 6 years, and he's the extremely rare example to be in that situation again! That's pretty wild. I did some research and the only other examples of a fighter winning the 3rd fight after losing twice before to the same opponent was: Frankie Edgar vs BJ Penn in 2014, and Tito Ortiz vs Ken Shamrock in 2006.
Sorry for the insanely long comment, but from a betting perspective I'm just so fascinated by this Poirier vs Holloway fight. I've got Poirier winning 58% percent of the time if these guys hypothetically fought this exact fight 10 times. But part of the reason I'm typing out all this stuff out is because Poirier is the underdog in a 3rd fight situation where as far as I can tell no UFC fighter has ever lost.
I'm just wondering if anyone that also listens to the amazing Vivisection has additional input on this interesting fight? Is Holloway about to be the first fighter (that I can find) to win the 3rd fight in a trilogy after losing the first two?
Correction: In the other examples of trilogy fights I found beyond the scope of my database, the Frankie Edgar and Tito Ortiz fights, in both those examples the fighter that won the first two fights also won the 3rd fight. I worded it wrong in my initial comment.
It's a relatively small sample size, since I've only been handicapping UFC cards for just over 6 years, but according to my database over that time, the fighter that announces retirement before a fight loses around 65% of the time. As a gambler that's a strong trend that can't be ignored. It's akin to the trend that around 63% of the time the younger fighter wins in UFC fights, which is also a trend that can'tbeignored. Also, when a fighter wins their pre-announced retirement fight, by my records that fighter goes on to fight again after that around 79% of the time. And then they tend to lose that next fight around 86% of the time, but by my notes they usually don't announce retirement before that 2nd fight, so it doesn't count toward the percentage of fighters that lose their "retirement" fight because my calculations require the retirement announcement before the fight to be included. So there's that caveat. If we're just talking the percentage of fighters that lose their last fight in the UFC, regardless of pre-fight retirement announcement, by my sample fighters lose their last UFC fight around 73% of the time.
Also, going on Conner's point, I can find no examples in my database over the past 6 years of UFC fights where a fighter has won the first 2 fights in a trilogy and lost the 3rd fight. But the only fight I have record of during that time span is the Volkanovski trilogy with Holloway. Holloway is the only loser I can find in that situation over the past 6 years, and he's the extremely rare example to be in that situation again! That's pretty wild. I did some research and the only other examples of a fighter winning the 3rd fight after losing twice before to the same opponent was: Frankie Edgar vs BJ Penn in 2014, and Tito Ortiz vs Ken Shamrock in 2006.
Sorry for the insanely long comment, but from a betting perspective I'm just so fascinated by this Poirier vs Holloway fight. I've got Poirier winning 58% percent of the time if these guys hypothetically fought this exact fight 10 times. But part of the reason I'm typing out all this stuff out is because Poirier is the underdog in a 3rd fight situation where as far as I can tell no UFC fighter has ever lost.
I'm just wondering if anyone that also listens to the amazing Vivisection has additional input on this interesting fight? Is Holloway about to be the first fighter (that I can find) to win the 3rd fight in a trilogy after losing the first two?
Correction: In the other examples of trilogy fights I found beyond the scope of my database, the Frankie Edgar and Tito Ortiz fights, in both those examples the fighter that won the first two fights also won the 3rd fight. I worded it wrong in my initial comment.
Alexis Davis vs. Sarah Kaufman springs to mind.